Latest adjusted pace
—Loading…Running development
The training behind the trend.
One privacy-safe view of consistency, load, and equivalent aerobic pace—focused on whether the work is producing durable fitness.
Public-safe aggregate
No routes, places, or start times
No routes, places, or start times
Checking data freshness…
Eight-week trend
—Calculating…Last completed week
—Loading…Recent fit
—Calculating uncertainty…Training consistency
Is the work becoming repeatable?
Weekly totals are shown without workout times, locations, or activity links.
Planned range · 15–22 miCompleted Monday–Sunday week
Readout The September 28–October 4 week recorded 4.3 miles across one run, below the 15–22 mile working range. The four-week average is 11.7 miles across 3.3 runs per week.
Signal versus noise
What does the recent trend actually say?
More responsive, but noisier.
More stable view of aerobic development.
At approximately 145 bpm.
Aerobic efficiency
Grade + climate pace at 145 bpm
IncludedExcluded from trendEight-week fit95% confidence
Select any point—or a row below—to inspect how that run affects the fit. Runs without a calculated adjusted pace appear only in the table. Shading shows the pointwise 95% confidence interval for mean fitted pace—not the expected range of individual runs.
Target effort145 bpm
Qualifying lap10+ minutes
Accepted HR140–150 bpm
Recent fit17 of 31 runs
Durability splitFirst vs second half
Efficiency baselineIndex 100
Aerobic durability
Does the efficiency hold—and improve?
Two companion metrics use the same qualifying aerobic observations as the 145-bpm pace analysis wherever the underlying data support them.
Calculating…
Pa:HR-style durability index · lower drift is better
More speed at the same 145-bpm effort
Mean adjusted speed from the first four qualifying observations.
Aerobic decouplingDurability through the steady segment
Lower drift ↓Calculated run5% reference
Calculated only when at least two qualifying post-warm-up laps are available. Grade-normalized speed is compared with observed HR; a run-level climate multiplier cancels from the within-run ratio.
Aerobic efficiency gainMore speed at the same HR
Higher efficiency ↑Efficiency indexBaseline = 100
Baseline 100 is the mean adjusted speed of the first four qualifying observations (Aug 6, 10, 15, and 27, 2026). An index of 106 means about 6% more adjusted speed at the same 145-bpm target effort. This reuses the primary adjusted pace rather than extrapolating heart rate to a fixed pace.
Run explorer
What changed the trend?
The effect compares the full fit with the same fit after removing the selected run.
| Date | Adjusted pace | Status | Trend effect |
|---|
View the full qualification rules and method
Method version: Grade + Climate 145-bpm v1.1.0. The constants are versioned in the repository so future updates use the same calculation unless the method version changes.
Steady aerobic laps must last at least 10 minutes, average 140–150 bpm, and cannot be the first lap. Warmups, short recordings, threshold sessions, trail runs, indoor runs, and altitude or travel runs are excluded.
Heart rate is normalized to 145 bpm using the preserved fitted coefficient. Grade uses the Minetti energy-cost curve. Climate uses the v1.1 athlete-specific WBGT adjustment (0.4% speed loss per °C above 7.5°C) from run-window weather observations; wind is retained for audit but is not given an independent pace coefficient. Corrected speeds are averaged by qualifying-lap duration.
Aerobic decoupling uses the same qualifying post-warm-up laps when at least two are available. The qualifying duration is split in half; each half uses grade-normalized speed divided by observed HR. Aerobic Efficiency Gain converts each qualifying adjusted 145-bpm pace to speed and indexes it against the fixed mean speed of the first four qualifying observations (baseline 100). Higher values mean more adjusted speed at the same target heart rate; no fixed-pace HR extrapolation is used.
The recent trend is an unweighted linear fit of included pace against date, scaled to 30.44 days. It is descriptive, not a forecast. Sleep, fatigue, fueling, cardiac drift, surface, and weather-station distance can still move a point.